Choppy Holidays!
Well, the election is settled. Bullish outcome. We saw Bitcoin go from 66k to 99k in a few short weeks, and there was a heavy inflow of optimistic headlines everywhere. Many are now saying that the supercycle is real, and honestly, it’s hard to tell them they’re wrong if the Trump admin follows through with the strategic reserve plans. Nobody in the space is really prepared for the effect that nation state FOMO would have. However, instead of being a moonboy and having outrageous optimism all the time, it isn’t a bad idea to look objectively at the current situation going into the end of the year.
A $30k move to the upside with little to no slowdown is exciting for everyone. Going from $66.7k to $99.5k in like 18 days was enough of a repricing to make anyone get emotional. Now we’re seeing a bit of a pit-stop. As of today, December 2nd, we’ve seen Bitcoin flush from 99.5 to 90 flat and recover back up to 98. As I type this, we’re sitting around 95k. A wipe like that is enough to eliminate a LOT of unhealthy leveraged positions from the market, and it’s quite honestly NECESSARY. So truthfully, I’m glad to see this flush happen now and I’m ok with/expecting some chop this month between 85-100k. Ideally, we don’t go lower than 88k but whatever happens can happen.
In my eyes, any dip this month is for buying. With how BOOMER coins like XRP are running, there is no doubt in my mind that there is SOME froth that will set the stage for another wipe sometime this month, but January seems incredibly bullish to me. The cup and handles are fully playing out across a few different charts, and as the Bitcoin rush keeps happening, a blast past 100k after a couple of healthy wipes will be BIBLICAL. For now, though, there is enough froth and greed in the market (imo) to allow for a revisit to the 80k’s and then resume upwards.
The daily chart for BTC is showing signs of this pit-stop:
As we can see above, this daily chart shows the range we broke out of after the election (which is pretty easy to spot here LOL) that led to a quick climb to $99k. On this time frame, a bit of a dip is easier to imagine. The rounded structure forming atop the current range is setting up for a downward move towards the high 80s-low 90s, in my opinion.
With that being said, let’s take a look at the weekly structure:
Now THIS chart is something to behold. This was the aforementioned cup and handle playing out. As we can see, a couple of red weekly candles isn’t too bad for BTC. Also keep in mind, the most recent red candle is only telling the story for today, as it’s Monday and we still have a lot of time left to change things. Overall, looking at this from a weekly perspective, I can see price breaking 100k by the end of the year, and I’m almost certain that we’ll be above 100k in January. Bitcoin can do whatever it wants for a couple of weeks. Flush out some leverage? Fine. Chop around between 94-98k? That’s ok, too. Break straight through 100k? I’d welcome it. The point is, we’re in a bull market, and some healthy retracements are expected. In reality, if the retracements don’t happen now, they’ll be more violent later. Just sit back and relax. The show goes on for now. Tighten your seatbelts. There will be a few bumps along the road but the destination is clear (over 100k).
TLDR: I’m expecting some type of flush this month but uppies overall, and the bull market has another leg in it.
