‘Tis the Season to be Bullish

In my last post on December 2nd, I was leaning towards the market being choppy before a move over 100k, and I was expecting some form of a flush this month. Well, I was right and wrong at the same time. The market flew through 100k, and then absolutely NUKED to 90k before recovering back up to 100k. Not only that, we got ANOTHER flush, which was far more pronounced in alts rather than BTC. The screenshot below shows what I’m referring to (look at those WICKS).

Excuse the squiggly circles, but those wicks represent BILLIONS of dollars in leverage getting HAMMERED out of the market. I had a feeling something like this was due, as we basically went from 74-104 with like ONE decent flush, and it happened very violently. If I remember correctly, it was the biggest wipe since 2021, or maybe even bigger than any single wipe in 2021. Given that funding was reset so harshly with wipes in both directions on almost all majors, I think it has created a healthier environment for continuation.

In my eyes, the stage is set for another move up before the end of the year. I was eyeing 110k this week, but after price dipped below the 97k range, the trend I had marked was broken. We are now at a point where many have accepted that the flush we saw early in the month was the first of many to come. Another thing worth noting is that for the past few months, the first week’s low has marked the monthly low. The traditional stock market is seeing rallies across the board, as well, and with rate cuts likely coming again, I’m bullish heading into 2025.

Santa rallies historically do happen, and I really don’t see why this time would be different. An interesting shift has been Blackrock ETF flows into Ethereum. Their Ethereum flows have nearly matched BTC flows recently, which might be indicative of a shift towards alts running and declining BTC dominance. Of course, the tides could change next week, but It seems that alts may finally get their legs back in the coming month or two. I’m excited to see how it plays out, because we really do only get a cycle like this after brutal bear markets. My mental targets are BTC 110-120k some time this month, Solana ~ 275-300, and Ethereum 4700-5000. This would set the groundwork for an explosive Q1 2025, which would likely end with a bearish/choppy Q2-Q3 (much like early this year). I’ll check back in soon.